An alternative Premier League table based on expected goals has been revealed – and it’s not good news for Chelsea or Arsenal.
The English top-flight is back with a bang after Christmas with all 20 sides in action between Boxing Day and December 28. It’s not going well for Chelsea boss Graham Potter – but it could be even worse for Arsenal and Mike Arteta.
Fans have been starved of football from the world’s most watched league since November due to the World Cup break. But it is set to make a grand, post-Christmas return as rivalries and battles from autumn resume.
A new table based on expected goals has shown how different the season could have been so far. The stat, also known as XG, has grown in popularity throughout football and accurately details how many goals a team should have scored and conceded based on a number of different metrics.
XG can provide insight into which teams may be over-performing or underperforming based on finishing and luck. The most dramatic reveal from the table is how much the fortunes of Chelsea would have changed based on expected goals.
The Blues are enduring a difficult season in reality with Graham Potter’s side slumping to eighth on the table before the break. But based on XG, Chelsea should actually be as low 15th and have six fewer points.
The numbers suggest the London side have been lucky with results this season, and the numbers also reveal that they should have conceded more goals than they have scored. In reality, Chelsea have a goal difference of zero with 17 goals scored and conceded.
Arsenal fans will also want to look away from the XG table. While their drop-off isn’t quite as stark, the Gunners do lose top spot to Manchester City based on expected goals. They head into Boxing Day with a five-point lead over City, but XG suggests they have been outperforming in front of goal.
The alternative table has them losing four points, Manchester City gaining a point, and Pep Guardiola’s side ahead on XG goal difference alone.
Manchester United are also notable with the Red Devils losing five places in the XG table. Based on the new metrics, Erik ten Hag’s side are actually four points better off than they should be based on the quality of chances they have scored and conceded.
Possibly the most alarming drop-off is Bournemouth who prop up the alternative table. In real life the Cherries are an impressive 14th with 16 points, but XG indicates they should actually be bottom of the league with only six points.
Everton are also in the XG relegation zone with six fewer points than in real life. Frank Lampard is looking to keep the Merseyside club up again but the data suggests they could have a difficult second-half of the season.
There’s good news for Leeds and West Ham, both of whom rocket up the XG table, suggesting both clubs’ performances are not being matched by their results.
Meanwhile Newcastle, Tottenham, Liverpool, Brentford and Leicester are in roughly the same place as real life. The Premier League resumes after Christmas with several fascinating plot-lines needing to be wrapped up.
Arsenal are looking to land their first Premier League title since 2005 but will face strong competition from a Man City side led by goal king Erling Haaland.
Newcastle are aiming to claim an unexpected place in the top four but may have to fend off a recovering charge from the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool.
And Julen Lopetegui and Nathan Jones have both been drafted in at bottom side Wolves and struggling Southampton respectively. The pair are hoping to escape a relegation battle which could potentially include half of the division.
The Sun report
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