A revolution in unmanned systems is reshaping the dynamics of Africa’s armed conflicts. Professional militaries must balance the tactical advantages of drones with an understanding of their limitations and risks.

Dogged by the ever-looming spectre of terrorism and inter-ethnic conflicts, Kenya and Ethiopia in eastern Africa are now among African countries that are seeking to indigenise drone production capabilities, particularly with the proliferation of small, commercially-made drones that are being modified and integrated into tactical operations.

A report published by African Centre for Security Studies says enterprises in nine African countries – Algeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan and Tunisia) – are now manufacturing military drones that supply approximately 12 per cent of Africa’s overall drone market.

South Africa, the continent’s longest-standing drone producer, has manufactured unmanned military systems since the 1970s. ENOVA Robotics, a Tunisian company, is exporting 50 of its ground security robots to the United States, the African centre for Security Studies says in its latest report published this on May 2, 2024.

Tell Media reproduces parts of the below:

General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), survived a drone-launched assassination attempt at a military base in eastern Sudan on July 31, 2024. In a grainy video captured on a mobile phone, rows of young cadets can be seen marching in formation at an army graduation ceremony.

An ominous buzzing sound overtakes festive drumbeats and bugle calls. It is followed by a loud bang as the first of two drones hits the base. The video then cuts to a triumphant Burhan vowing to continue the fight against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the SAF’s antagonist in Sudan’s devastating civil war.

African governments need to develop a more complex understanding of the risks and limitations of using armed drones.

From the skies above Khartoum to marketplaces in Mopti (Mali), hundreds of attacks employing drones have occurred across at least 15 countries in Africa in recent years. Propelled by falling costs, rapid technological advances, and the promise of precision air power, these systems are facilitating tactical advantages and territorial shifts.

In response, African governments are rushing to incorporate unmanned systems and countermeasures into their arsenals.

Nevertheless, drones have not always proven to be the low-cost, low-risk tool of precision warfare they are perceived to be. As African policymakers and security practitioners grapple with the deployment, mitigation, and implications from the proliferation of unmanned systems, a balanced understanding of their benefits and risks will be needed.

With the global advancement and propagation of unmanned weapons systems, a new age of autonomous warfare has begun. In Ukraine, the world’s most advanced drone theatre, drones caused 70 per cent of battlefield injuries or deaths in 2024, supplanting artillery. World powers to small island states are now racing to acquire and employ unmanned systems. In Africa, four key trends are shaping contemporary drone warfare.

First is the increasing pace of military drone acquisition and use. Over the past two decades, at least 31 African countries have acquired thousands of individual unmanned units. The pace of government military drone acquisitions in Africa is increasing, with at least 15 bilateral acquisition agreements (with each agreement involving several to more than a dozen drones) every year since 2020.

The proliferation of drones in Africa is being driven by a wide variety of factors, including low costs, growing availability, the desire for enhanced surveillance capacity and the ability to project power against an exposed adversary at a low risk to the user.

The drones acquired include everything from small handheld drones that weigh less than a pound and used primarily for intelligence gathering to High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) aircraft that can remain aloft for 24 hours, fly over 300 kilometres per hour, and drop 2,000-pound, precision-guided munitions. Popular models include Israel’s Bluebird Aero Systems WanderB vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) tactical surveillance drone, the US-based BAE Systems Sky Eye surveillance drone and the medium altitude high endurance (MALE) Turkish Bayraktar TB2, the single most popular combat drone in Africa.

The TB2’s acquisition and use by the Government of National Accord (GNA) proved decisive in defeating an offensive mounted by the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) during the battle for Tripoli in 2020, helping to spur the ongoing wave of drone proliferation across the world. The TB2s, combined with upgraded air defences and sophisticated jamming gear, enabled the GNA to use combined arms manoeuvres to retake and eventually push back the LNA from Tripoli and its environs.

Second, middle powers, particularly Türkiye, are asymmetrically expanding their influence in Africa by meeting the continent’s rising demand for drones. Türkiye is Africa’s top supplier, with a total of 32 agreements, 28 of which have occurred since 2021.

Türkiye has succeeded by appealing to the desire of countries across Africa to acquire affordable, modern weapons outside the supply chains of major technological powers. Israel, the UAE and Iran have similarly expanded their reach on the continent via the supply of drones.

On the demand side, Nigeria (18 acquisitions), Algeria (15), Ethiopia (12) and Morocco (11) are Africa’s top drone seekers.

Third is the increased use of drones by armed non-state actors. The sophistication of operating medium and high-altitude combat drones has, until recently, represented a significant barrier to entry for their acquisition by armed non-state actors. A typical TB2 package, for example, is sold as six individual units and includes ground control stations, video terminals and support equipment that require months of training to effectively operate and use.

The increased accessibility and affordability of drones, however, has reduced these barriers to entry. Currently, armed non-state actors in nine African countries – Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Libya, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan – have acquired and used military drones. Unmanned systems are thus reshaping the battlespace in most African conflicts.

The first confirmed drone strike in Africa occurred on June 23, 2011, when a US drone attacked a convoy carrying two senior Al-Shabaab leaders near the port of Kismayu in Somalia. Since that time, at least 900 drone strikes have occurred in 15 African countries, causing more than 3,000 fatalities. Both the number of drone strikes and the death toll resulting from them, have expanded nearly every year.

Although drone strikes are becoming increasingly common, their use in offensive operations has to date been concentrated in six countries – Sudan, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali, Libya and Somalia – which account for 93 per cent of recorded drone strikes. Drones have proven devastating weapons when used against forces operating in the open, with extended supply lines and without sufficient air defence or counter drone capabilities. In Libya, Ethiopia, and Sudan, MALE drones precipitated decisive territorial shifts that have influenced the course of all three conflicts.

For example, the cheap airpower provided by drones helped enable the Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) to repel an offensive of the Tigray People’s Liberation Forces (TPLF) that had advanced to within 200 kilometres of Addis Ababa during the 2020-2022 conflict.

Fleets of UAE, Iranian, Turkish, and Chinese-manufactured drones were deployed in a counteroffensive against the TPLF, which did not have their own drone arsenal or substantial air defences. By 2022, the ENDF had surrounded Mekelle, Tigray’s capital, leading to a negotiated ceasefire and the disarmament of TPLF.

• A Tell Media report