After a rapid advance saw Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seize the two largest cities in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, uncertainty now looms over whether they will push on to the capital, and how much more the war will entangle the wider region.

The first direct peace talks between the rebels and the Congolese government were supposed to take place earlier this week in Angola, but M23 officials backed out citing new European sanctions against the group as undermining their participation.

DRC President Félix Tshisekedi then met his Rwandan counterpart in a surprise face-to-face encounter in Qatar on March 18. All sides called for a ceasefire, but M23 representatives did not participate, and have continued to hive off more territory.

The rebels are now entrenching control over newly taken towns, setting up governance structures that signal plans for a long-term presence while expanding their territory far beyond that of any of the more than 100 other armed groups active in the east.

Civilians in towns threatened by the group’s advance say they fear their arrival as well as the presence of retreating Congolese soldiers and allied militias, who have been looting and committing human rights abuses in many areas.

“The situation is really bad here… the warehouses and the market have been looted, the schools and banks are closed,” said a Congolese worker at an international NGO in Uvira, a large eastern city south of Bukavu and in the M23’s crosshairs.

The aid worker, who asked not to be named, said armed men – likely allied to the DRC army – are increasingly present in Uvira and are committing grave abuses. “People have been killed in their homes without anyone knowing why or by whom,” he said.

The M23 is mostly led by Congolese Tutsi rebels who initially justified their insurgency by claiming that DRC failed to implement a prior peace deal with the group, and by arguing that Tutsi communities were being discriminated against.

The rebels descend from a long line of DRC armed groups backed by neighbouring Rwanda. Support began in the 1990s as Rwanda’s new Tutsi-led government hunted down Hutu extremists that fled to DRC after perpetrating the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi. Rwanda says genocidaire militia still pose a threat to its security, although it officially denies giving support to the M23.

The Congolese government responded to the latest insurgency, which began in 2021, by aligning with abusive militias while refusing to engage in peace talks – actions that fuelled M23 and Rwandan grievances and strengthened their justification for fighting.

Having taken big provincial capitals in recent weeks, the M23 has vowed to march on Kinshasa and is voicing increasingly national aspirations through a political wing, the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which wants to topple Tshisekedi.

However, analysts say the group’s Rwandan backers may be satisfied with limiting themselves to the east, establishing a buffer zone that secures their influence, grants access to valuable natural resources, and allows them to counter rival armed groups.

Regional countries involved in the conflict are determining how to respond to the latest escalation. Southern African (from South Africa, Malawi and Tanzania) and Burundian forces are scaling back support to the Congolese army, while Uganda – closer to the M23 – has expanded its presence.

The humanitarian situation is especially concerning for displaced people. Tens of thousands have escaped Bukavu and nearby areas for Burundi, while uprooted people who were living in Goma having fled an M23 offensive elsewhere are now returning to devastated areas.

“Families are extremely vulnerable; they are going back to nothing,” said Thierry Allafort-Duverger, head of emergency programmes in Goma for Médecins Sans Frontières. “Of course, people want to go back home, but will the assistance they need be able reach them?”

This briefing takes stock of the current situation, examining developments in Goma and Bukavu since their fall, analysing the current motives of the M23 and Rwanda, the potential for a deeper regional conflict, and the prospects for peace.

Who are the M23 and what has happened since they seized Goma and Bukavu?

The rebels are named after a failed peace deal signed on 23 March 2009 between the DRC government and an M23 predecessor group, the CNDP. The M23 formed when CNDP fighters accused the government of failing to respect the agreement.

The M23 led a defeated rebellion in DRC back in 2012 but was reactivated by Rwanda a decade later. Kigali denies supporting the group, but UN experts say thousands of Rwandan soldiers are in DRC and have de facto control over the rebels.

Rwandan support, combined with weaknesses in DRC’s army, enabled the M23 to seize vast amounts of territory in North Kivu province before capturing the provincial capital, Goma, a city of two million, in January: the conflict’s biggest escalation to date.

The rebels also captured Goma during their 2012 offensive, but were only able to hold it for a few days. This time, however, they appear intent on staying and are appointing new authorities while organising mass rallies to assert their power.

The group has tried to project an image of normalcy since arriving in Goma, but its forces have allegedly carried out summary executions, threatened civil society activists, and pushed out displaced people who had sought refuge in the city over recent years.

Zebelize Tuyanbazi lived in a tent in an overcrowded camp north of Goma for two and a half years with her husband and seven children. She recently returned to her small town, about 40 kilometres away.

Back home, she found her wooden house partially destroyed by the fighting. “There is nothing left, everything has been stolen: the beds, the mattresses,” she said. “I have a field, but I cannot cultivate it without tools and without seeds.”

The rebels took over Bukavu – South Kivu’s capital and a city of around one million people – three weeks after capturing Goma, and have again attempted to project an image of stability, even organising a mandatory community street-cleaning initiative.

However, their actions in Bukavu have also been marked by abuses, including alleged summary executions of children. Their failure to maintain security was also highlighted by bomb blasts at an M23 rally that killed multiple people.

“Whoever is responsible [for the blasts], it shows that civilians continue to die and live in fear,” said a human rights activist in Bukavu. “We are talking about people that are already traumatised. They just want peace so they can feed their families”

The activist said many civil society members have left Goma and Bukavu or are in hiding. “Being too vocal or exposed is not the best thing to do at the moment,” they said. “There is also a communication war taking place. I don’t think criticism will be tolerated.”

• A Tell Media report