In a rare demonstration of nationalism Somalia Federal Government and terrorist militia Al Shabaab have united in condemning Ethiopia for signing a seaport lease agreement with the government of semi-autonomous Somaliland.

The diplomatic tiff, it is feared, could further escalate the already tenuous political and military relationship between the two Horn of Africa neighbours, warns a Mogadishu-based civil society group, the Sahan Somali Wire, in a January 5, 2024, statement.

According to the statement, Somalia needs Ethiopia’s support more than ever as the African Union prepares to wind down the African Transition Mission in Somalia.

“Ethiopia and Somalia have worked closely in containing domestic and regional threats to security. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) is a central part of the African Union Transitional Mission is Somalia (ATMIS(, whose mandate is to degrade the terrorist group Al Shabaab and improve the capacity of Somali security forces. There are also non-ATMIS ENDF  forces in Somalia operating on southeast, Jubaland and Hirshabelle state,” Sahan Somalia Wire says and urges President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to speedily resolve the stand-off that has the potential for far-reaching impact on pacification of war-ravaged Somalia.

While details of the agreement have not been made public, Somalia reacted angrily to the deal by recalling its ambassador to Ethiopia, a move that threatens the coexistence of the two countries.

Somalia fears that Ethiopia may have quietly recognised Somaliland as a sovereign state, which has also been a source of diplomatic tensions between Kenya and Somalia after Nairobi opened a consul office in Somaliland a few years. The latter has also a consul office in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, a move that did not sit well with the authorities in Mogadishu.

It took the election of President Hassan to defuse frosty diplomatic relations between Somalia and Kenya.

Since self-declaration of independence 30 years ago, Somaliland has been seeking recognition by the United Nations and the African Union without success. The semi-autonomous region’s President Muse Bihi Abdi, has also not been successful establishing diplomatic relations with eastern African countries despite, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda having in the past warmed up to the possibility.

Sahan Somalia Wire expressed concerns that the row between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu would precipitate deterioration of security in the region.

It said, “The diplomatic tiff between the neighbours could have several security implications for Somalia, if tensions escalate. Somalia remains a fragile state; its security forces are fragmented, and it lacks the capacity to seize territory from Al Shabaab despite improvement in 2022 when they retook some territory with the support of local defence forces. Most liberated areas have since been retaken by Al Shabaab because of lack of holding force in place to maintain control.”

Ethiopia, the second most populous African country after Nigeria, is landlocked and its only access to sea can be via Djibouti, Somalia or Kenya. While the express reason for signing an agreement to with Somaliland to Berbera seaport was given as establishment of a naval, it is also likely that is will use the port international trade.

There are also fears that if the tension escalate, Ethiopia might be forced to withdraw its non-ATMIS and ATMIS troops, which could expose Somalia to further vagaries of Al Shabaab terrorism. Sahan Somalia Wire says that increased vulnerability to Al Shabaab would significantly weaken the of region in the South West State that include Bat ad Bakool.

“Non-ATMIS Ethiopian forces are currently in Baidoa reinforcing Ethiopian ATNIS forces, Non-ATMIS Ethiopian forces are also based in eight locations in the Bakool region; in most of these locations, the NDS is the e sole provider of security. Some of these towns have been under AL Shabaab control for more than 10 years despite Ethiopian presence,” Sahan Somalia Wire says in its statement.

It warns that South West State would be the hardest hit region besides Jubaland, Hiiram and Gedo.

The statement says, “For Gedo, ENDF withdrawal would not only make Jubaland vulnerable, it would allow Al Shabaab increased freedom to manoeuvre and the capability to launch attacks across the border onto Kenya.”

Ethiopian will not be spared, too it adds.

“As Ethiopia grapples with its own internal strife inclusion in Amhara and Oromia, Al Shabaab might find it possible to exploit lax border security to spread into Ethiopia,” Sahan warns.

The diplomatic standoff between the two eastern Africa neighbours is happening at a time when “Somalia [has] deeply invested in counter-Al-Shabaab security operation.”

“Phase II of the operations was to include ENDF forces to clear South West State and Jubaland. It is therefore crucial for regional and international actors to work together to find diplomatic solution’s to prevent further destabilisation in Somalia,” the organisation said.

•  A Tell report / JK