Barely two months after Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) was given the all-clear by Kenya to hold a conference that announced a parallel Sudanese government in the capital, Nairobi, the sullied image of the East African nation remains a subject of discussion, with the risk of isolation in eastern Africa a high prospect.

It does not help Kenya’s image that Nairobi and South Sudan are singled out as conduits for illicit trade in gold and gum Arabica from Sudan’s war-ravaged Darfur region – a RSF stronghold.

The latest of these allegations is an investigation by wire agency, Reuters, which in February published a report that criminalises Kenya’s links with South Sudan, Egypt and Chad to trafficking in gum Arabica, a plant-based ingredient that is used in the manufacture of soft drinks – mainly Coca Cola – sweets and pet-food.

Sudan produces more than 80 per cent of gum Arabica in the world.

However security and transnational crime investigator George Musamali says gum Arabica trafficking is just a tip of the iceberg and points out that, to understand how Kenya is deeply entangled in the two-year Sudanese factional war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces, the searchlight must turn on the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the conflict that has displaced 12.5 million people and killed over 40,000 civilians.

Dr Musamali says UAE interests in the region have turned Kenya into a marionette that does the UAE bidding for Rapid Support Forces, for which it is receiving economic support from the kingdom. In addition, unqualified reports link UAE to the 2022 elections in which the emirates made huge donations to the Kenya Kwanza election war-chest.

“South Sudan and RSF commander, Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – nicknamed Hemedti – funded Kenya Kwanza 2022 election campaign. They bankrolled the campaign and that is why Kenyan government has a soft spot for RSF. In the Sudan, we’re being pushed out by the Sudanese army. In the civil war, Kenya is leaning toward RSF, which is supported by UAE. UAE sponsors RSF, which is why Nairobi’s regional interests are being questioned by the African Union, United Nations and Sudanese military,” says Musamali, founder and director of Executive Protection Services, a security agency.

Retired US Marine Andrew Franklin and founder of Nairobi-based Franklin Management Consultants Ltd, adds that Kenya finds itself in a tricky situation in eastern Africa and the Middle East with regard to the intrinsic military cooperation between RSF and UAE.

“UAE previously recruited mercenaries from Sudan to fight from 2015 against Houthis in Yemen. Many of these fighters gravitated towards RSF after their contracts ended,” says Franklin.

He observes, “UAE is a middle tier power that has lot of money and because of their connection with RSF, they seem to have influenced a lot of people here (in Kenyan government). They have created a network where even Kenyan ministers have links in the emirates. There are tremendous amounts of gold that goes to UAE that comes out of RSF controlled Sudan, even from here (Kenya) and Tanzania. It is not that they are infiltrating, they are actually influencing.”

RSF evolved from remnants of a militia that was retained by former Sudanese President Omar al Bashir – Janjaweed – that is accused by the International Criminal Court of crimes against humanity and war crimes against civilians of Black African descent or Masalit in gold-rich Darfur region.

In Nairobi, security and international diplomacy experts aver that Kenya’s credibility is headed for the headwinds following US’ Africa policy switch that signals disengagement with the continent. US aid freeze leaves African countries at the mercy of Middle East kingdoms that have become influential as alternative lenders to World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the US.

In February, UAE loaned Kenya $1.5 billion (Ksh194.4 billion), which has helped stabilise the volatility of the Kenyan shilling as Nairobi looked to strike a new financing deal with IMF. In late March (last month) Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi announced that Kenya’s foreign reserves had improved as the government prepared to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund before the existing $3.6 billion (Ksh467 billion) agreement expires next week.

 Memorandum by the Ministry of Investments, Trade and Industry dated February 21, 2025 and presented to the National Assembly for ratification on March 6, 2025 highlights the growing UAE economic interests in Kenya.

It says, “Trade trends between the two parties indicate that two-way trade grew by 169.24 per cent over nine years from Ksh142.5 billion in 2O13 to Ksh383.68 billion in 2022. Kenya’s exports to UAE amounted to $373.6 million and $401.5 million in 2022 and 2023 while imports from the UAE were valued at $3.45 billion and $2.95 billion during the same period.”

Speaking to the Tell Media from Kings College, London, an expert on relations between the Middle East and Africa notes that the US disengagement with Africa has created a hiatus the UAE is filling.

“The problem with the Kenyan situation is how the US is implementing its policy of restraint towards Africa and part of the Middle East, which enables its allies like the Gulf States to become the designated actors where the US is not interested in direct relationships with Africa. I find it so interesting that countries like Kenya will have relationships with the US and Middle East at the same time. Nairobi is a centre or a hub for many international organisations. Kenya is an important country in Africa for western governments. So I think that it a lot easier to leverage this relationship instead of dealing US’ allies like UAE. The Middle East countries are not stable all the time. They are not working for the US but also for themselves,” says the analyst.

RSF arrival in Kenya and the decision to ‘elect’ a president in exile has further sucked Nairobi further into diplomatic imbroglio, with warnings at home and abroad that President William Ruto may be “walking on hot coal.”

The fears follow a flurry of diplomatic memos from the African Union, Sudan, the United Nations and the European Union, which have in unison warned Kenya of risks isolation. They do not recognise the Port Sudan-based “alternative government” that was formed in Nairobi in February.

On January 14, President William Ruto and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, signed the Kenya-United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) to enhance trade, investment and economic cooperation, according to a ministry of foreign affairs statement.

The deal is expected reshape Kenya’s economic landscape and boost its global trade ambitions but there are fears that the kingdom will eventually take over key pillars of the Kenya economy.

The foreign office says, “The trade agreement (with UAE) strengthens Kenya’s position as a gateway to East and Southern Africa and reaffirms the UAE’s role as a global logistics and financial hub connecting the Middle East, Asia, and beyond. Trade between Kenya and the UAE has more than doubled over the past decade. In 2023, total trade between the two countries reached Ksh445 billion, with the UAE ranking as Kenya’s sixth largest export destination and second-largest source of imports, accounting for 16 per cent of Kenya’s total imports.”

Kenya’ exports to the UAE agricultural products such meat and meat products worth Ksh18.3 billion, fruits (primarily pineapples, avocados, and mangoes) valued at Ksh5.2 billion, vegetables and flowers, worth Ksh5.6 billion. In return, the UAE supplies Kenya with critical goods, including petroleum, machinery, chemicals and other essential products, according to information gleaned from the ministry of foreign affairs website.

The Kings College-based Sudanese Middle East analysts describes UAE as a “disrupter of democracy” when and where their interests are at stake. The analyst gives Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad as examples of where regimes that were opposed to UAE interests were suffocated.

“Analysts believe UAE is providing incentives to countries that neighbour Sudan to support and accept RSF as a legitimate authority. We saw it last year when RSF leader (Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo) had a tour in different countries, including Kenya, where he was received like a president – not like a man who does not have a clear position or an insurgent. For Kenya to host a conference where they announced their alternative government does not come for free. There were incentives by the UAE to the host government,” the analyst.

Musamali concurs and connects the government-to-government oil deals Kenya has with the UAE to the incentives UAE is dangling in Sudan and wider eastern Africa.

“UAE is where we are getting our oil from. That (incentives) is the origin of the government-to-government deal. In essence, Kenya Kwanza election campaign was in part bankrolled by UAE and by hosting RSF in Nairobi, Kenya is returning a favour. All that is happening here is purely dirty politics,” he says.

According to the source in London, “The UAE likes political changes to be drastic. They like, for examples, using aid or any possible means to change a government. All they want is to see the regime gone. This is the situation in Sudan and other areas like Libya, Egypt and Chad. When they feel like they want their ally to be in power, they will support the ally to make a military move. This is exactly what happening with the Hemedti and RSF.”

Hemedti’s rival and commander of Sudanese army, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, has in the past declined invitation for talks in Nairobi, questioning Kenya’s neutrality.

Ordinarily, UAE has independent relationship with countries like Kenya and South Sudan. However, the expert says UAE is desperate to influence legitimacy and acceptance of RSF, which is why it is “multiplying” incentives to neighbouring countries to recognise RSF.

The analyst points out, “Even if you look at the timeline of increasing cooperation with Kenya, South Sudan and other allies with what is happening in Sudan, only Ethiopia had an old relationship with UAE. Of course all these countries are interested to in what is happening in Sudan. Unfortunately, it has led to the breakup of diplomacy with the Sudanese government – or Sudanese armed forces – that has stopped tea imports from Kenya.”

As long as Kenya plays ball, the analyst predicts that the economic implications of the ban on Kenyan tea and other agricultural produce in Sudan are likely to influence “UAE to step in and provide alternative markets for Kenyan tea, etc, because of what has happened and due to the fact that RSF was hosted by Kenya. This has motivated by the UAE. It is a very interesting phenomenon and extremely dangerous for Kenya.

• A Tell Media report / By Juma Kwayera