When looking at the events that led to a manager losing his way at a club, it seems mad to go back and pinpoint his first victory in charge.

But when Erik ten Hag recorded his first win at Manchester United back in August 2022, there was something uneasy about the performance. It was an important 2-1 home victory over Liverpool, but it was not achieved with Erik ten Hag football.

Ten Hag compromised. After briefly attempting to impose Ajax-style principles at United and getting convincingly beaten by both Brighton and Hove Albion and then Brentford – 4-0 on the latter occasion – Ten Hag went back to basics. United had spells of pressure in the early stages through aggressive pressing. They scored two well-worked goals. But their best moments came on the break. They ground out the victory.

In many ways, it was understandable given United’s prior difficulties and Ten Hag’s obvious fear of starting his United career with three straight defeats. But it was largely simplistic football, the type that had often allowed them to pinch results under Jose Mourinho and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. We once asked what United’s attacking plan was under those coaches. We’re asking the same thing under Ten Hag, partly because that win over Liverpool set the template.

By the end of last season, Ten Hag’s United had scored the most counter-attacking goals in the league. In terms of non-counter-attacking goals – everything from open play, to set pieces, to penalties – United ranked just ninth.

Really, in keeping with his predecessors, the story is not simply that Ten Hag has failed. The story is that he’s failed after doing well in his first season. After all, Louis van Gaal took United to fourth in his first season. Mourinho won the League Cup and the Europa League. Solskjaer had a positive caretaker spell and then finished second. Ralf Rangnick had, er, a very energetic 45 minutes against Crystal Palace.

And Ten Hag, let’s not forget, took United to third place last season, his side kept the highest number of clean sheets in the Premier League, and he reached both domestic cup finals. Since then, however, United have gone backwards in almost every respect, and while the finger-pointing is always at individuals, it’s the absence of collective concepts that are most concerning when it comes to assessing the manager’s future.

United’s third-place finish last season was impressive, but the underlying numbers were less convincing. In fact, goal difference probably doesn’t even qualify as an underlying number, but +15 was a curiously low figure for a team in third. The previous 10 third-placed finishers in the Premier League averaged a goal difference of +35. United were thrashed three times (4-0 v Brentford, 6-3 by Manchester City, 7-0 by Liverpool) but didn’t record any victories of more than three goals.

This season has featured a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth and a 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace and only four victories by more than a single goal (Everton twice, plus West Ham and Sheffield United at home). Therefore, the club’s goal difference column is -3 at the moment. There are more examples of Ten Hag’s system collapsing spectacularly than working fluidly.

There are mitigating circumstances. United have suffered from terrible injury problems in defence. Lisandro Martinez was not merely outstanding throughout last season; he was the poster boy for what Ten Hag seemed to want from everyone else. He helped United play out from the back and was aggressive in his ball-winning. He also had a good understanding with Raphael Varane. But Martinez hasn’t completed 90 minutes since August and defensive colleagues have also gone down injured. That’s meant United’s most-used centre-back this season has been Harry Maguire and while the club captain has never been as much of a liability as the meme-based mocking would suggest, he’s an entirely different type of defender, necessarily having to play deeper.

That has grated. After all, United released David de Gea to bring in Andre Onana and help United become more Ajax-like. Onana has been inconsistent but overall a positive – his underlying numbers suggest he’s been one of the better goalkeepers in the league. But shot-stopping wasn’t really the thing United were trying to improve – De Gea was past his best but, to reiterate, he kept the most clean sheets in the Premier League last season. United were attempting to introduce a goalkeeper more adept on the ball, but amidst the chopping and changing in front of him, and the absence of another Ajax old boy in Martinez, the stylistic evolution hasn’t occurred.

It’s striking how often United go long in situations where other top sides would play out. Last season, according to Opta, 37 per cent of United’s goalkeeper passes were ‘launched’ – that is, played more than 40 yards. This season, it’s 36 per cent. Granted, not all long passes are the same and Onana’s distribution is clearly more assured than De Gea’s, but the build-up is no more patient.

And if there’s been a lack of cohesion between goalkeeper and defence, wait until you see the relationship between defence…

…and midfield, which is a bit like that paragraphing.

Ten Hag is presiding over a team with a defence that naturally retreats and a midfield that pushes up to man-mark. The consequence has been an alarming amount of space between the lines. If Casemiro could once cover that space alone – and at times last season he did so expertly – this season he has not merely struggled to occupy the space but exacerbated the amount of space by storming into challenges he can’t win. Kobbie Mainoo looks excellent in possession but has been exposed by the openness of the system. Scott McTominay is a very useful footballer, but also a midfielder who doesn’t actually contribute anything in midfield.

That’s led to an alarming number of goals conceded from cutbacks towards the edge of the box, like this one against Nottingham Forest…

… or this one against Tottenham…

… or… in fairness, this one against Brentford is a little harsh because it’s in the aftermath of a set-piece situation in the final minute, but this does feel quite typical.

In attack? Well, for all the talk about managerial philosophies, this is the area where managers are most flexible. They are generally happy to adapt to the players at their disposal. Pep Guardiola has won the European Cup with a false nine like Lionel Messi and a proper nine like Erling Haaland. Jurgen Klopp’s Dortmund had selfless wide players serving brilliant central players, and his Liverpool had selfless central players serving brilliant wide players. But most successful sides have a clear technical leader, someone who dominates their attack.

United don’t have one – partly through design, partly through circumstance, partly through Ten Hag’s mismanagement.

The design? Ten Hag largely played the Cristiano Ronaldo situation brilliantly, dropping him for that first victory over Liverpool, easing him out gradually and then letting him storm off in a huff.

The circumstance? Marcus Rashford was voted United’s player of the year last season, but his form has nosedived dramatically this time around. This, from the outside, appears more about Rashford than anything Ten Hag has done.

The mismanagement? Antony has proved a wretched signing and was clearly one of Ten Hag’s own. Meanwhile, Jadon Sancho is a Champions League finalist. There are two sides to that particular story, but ultimately Ten Hag had a disastrous falling out with a potentially key individual.

With Rasmus Hojlund struggling for goals before Christmas, United have gone back to a reliance on Bruno Fernandes. He isn’t capable of the consistent brilliance that largely bailed out Solskjaer, and even then was always an individualist rather than a system player. Incidentally, a sign of United’s ability to build a long-term approach is the fact they’ve had seven different top scorers in their last seven seasons. Hojlund is currently one goal behind Fernandes this season and could make it eight in eight.

Ultimately, Manchester United have not adjusted to Ten Hag’s approach; Ten Hag has adjusted to Manchester United’s. The Dutchman has struggled to reshape the club, not purely through his own failings but also because of individual underperformance and long-running issues upstairs. But Ten Hag must admit his failings and it’s not solely about tactics. He hasn’t come across as a confident leader with a clear plan. Mourinho and Van Gaal brought some level of confidence. Solskjaer inevitably felt at home. But Ten Hag, rather like Moyes and Rangnick, has looked uneasy and has been unimpressive in terms of communication.

There’s no reason Ten Hag shouldn’t be in line for other jobs – in six years with Ajax and Manchester United, the first five were successful and only one has been a failure. Indeed, his four-year spell of taking Ajax to first place (albeit one of the seasons ended early because of Covid-19) now looks even more impressive. It was preceded by four years without a title under his predecessors and has been followed by two years without a title under his successors. And he wouldn’t be the first to enjoy success after Manchester United; Moyes and Mourinho won the first two editions of the UEFA Conference League, while Van Gaal and Rangnick have experienced highs in international football.

But there’s little case for keeping Ten Hag around. Results have gone backwards. Performances have, too. But more than anything, there’s just no sense of what Ten Hag is working towards. He could still bow out on a high, like his compatriot Van Gaal, by winning the FA Cup in a repeat of last year’s final against Manchester City.

The problem isn’t that United will go into that game as underdogs — it’s that they are still most comfortable playing as underdogs.

• The Athletic report