At a busy bus stop on the outskirts of Nairobi, the capital of Kenya, commuters wait in long queues as transport fares rise in response to surging fuel prices.

“I paid $0.61 this morning instead of the usual $0.38,” said Moses Kalondu, an office worker commuting from Mlolongo to the city centre. “This hurts, and it has made commuting more expensive.” Kalondu’s experience reflects a broader reality.

Across Kenya, millions are grappling with a record surge in fuel prices, widely seen as a direct consequence of the Middle East conflict that has disrupted global supply chains and unsettled international markets.

However, overburdened with taxes, Kenya needed a trigger to escalate political temperatures. Kenyan opposition have already given President William Ruto a one-week ultimatum to revise the fuel cost downwards or face countrywide protests.

On Tuesday, the country’s energy regulator raised the prices of super petrol and diesel by record margins of Ksh28.69 (about $0.22) per litre and Ksh40.3 per litre, respectively. The effects were immediate. In the public transport sector, operators, commonly known as matatus, raised fares by about 25 per cent overnight.

“We are simply adjusting to the current fuel situation,” said Albert Karakacha, chairman of the Matatu Owners Association.

“The cost of fuel has risen beyond what operators can absorb while maintaining current fares.” The impact extends beyond daily commuters.

Long-distance travellers are also feeling the pinch, with bus operators increasing fares by between $1.54 and $3.86. Tickets from Nairobi to Kisii now cost $13.15, while fares to the coastal city of Mombasa have climbed to $23.21.

Beyond transport, the ripple effects are expected to spread across the broader economy, as rising fuel costs drive up the price of goods and services in a country heavily dependent on imported petroleum. Freight operators are already adjusting.

Newton Wangoo, chairman of the Kenya Transporters Association, said members would review their cost structures to reflect the new realities. In response, the government has moved to cushion consumers.

Opiyo Wandayi, cabinet secretary for energy and petroleum, said authorities would deploy 48 million dollars in subsidies to ease the burden.

Despite these interventions, analysts warn of sustained economic pressure. Macharia Munene, a professor of international relations, said the Middle East conflict could have lasting consequences for Kenya’s economy, noting that “the global nature of this crisis means its effects will not disappear quickly.”

Faced with rising costs, some workers are exploring alternatives, including shifting to remote work to reduce commuting expenses.

Meanwhile, concerns are growing that higher fuel prices could fuel inflation. Kenya’s inflation rate stood at 4.4 per cent in March, slightly up from 4.3 per cent in February, with price pressures continuing to build.

Although the World Bank and the National Treasury have projected Kenya’s economic growth of at least 5 per cent this year, supported by recovering economic activity, rising fuel costs now pose an increasing risk to that outlook.

• A Tell Media / Xinhua report