
Conflict is the leading driver of displacement on the African continent. Only two of the African countries with more than 250,000 people displaced were not experiencing conflict.
Citizens of these two – Eritrea and Rwanda – face some of the highest levels of domestic repression on the continent. Notably, nearly all of the displacement in these two countries is external.
Ethiopia saw an increase of 119,000 in its forcibly displaced population over the past 12 months due to continued clashes between federal forces and ethnic militias in Amhara and Oromia regions.
The conflict in Sudan has caused more than 69,000 Ethiopians and an almost equal number of Sudanese to flee across the border into the Amhara region.
This increase follows the dramatic 1.2 million person decline in Ethiopia’s forcibly displaced population subsequent to the signing of the cessation of hostilities agreement in Tigray in 2022. The conflict in Sudan has caused more than 69,000 Ethiopians and an almost equal number of Sudanese to flee across the border into the Amhara region.
Ethiopia
3,542,000 forcibly displaced
119,000 increase (3 per cent change)
The World Food Programme estimates approximately 4 million IDPs face acute food insecurity. Those in Tigray and northeastern Amhara face IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) levels of hunger. Sudanese refugees in Amhara are also among those experiencing Emergency level hunger.
Burkina Faso
Roughly 3 million Burkinabe forcibly displaced
135,000 reported increase (5 per cent change)
With the deteriorating security in Burkina Faso, estimates are that the number of forcibly displaced is roughly 3 million – more than 10 per cent of the population. This displacement has been caused by militant Islamist groups that now control roughly 60 per cent of Burkina Faso territory and have besieged 75 towns and cities.
Burkina Faso’s military junta discontinued reporting IDP numbers in March 2023, when the number of reported displacements were estimated at 2.27 million. Suspensions of media outlets and intimidation of journalists who report on the deteriorating security, severely limit access to reliable displacement figures.
Displacement is further driven by violence against civilians by Burkinabe security forces. Over the last 12 months, these forces are reported to have killed more than 1,160 civilians in the name of combatting violent extremist groups.
Cameroon
1,262,000 forcibly displaced
54,000 increase (4 per cent change)
Forced displacement in Cameroon has been driven by two conflicts in its border regions, resulting in almost 1.3 million displaced people.
In the north, threats from Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa have spilled over Nigeria’s border for the past decade. The number of violent events and fatalities linked to these militant Islamist groups have more than doubled over the past 12 months. For the first time, there were more violent events in Cameroon than in Nigeria.
In the west, persistent violence has been linked to the government’s response to the country’s two Anglophone regions seeking greater rights and decentralization of government. Over 5,500 people have been killed in this conflict since 2016.
Mali
653,000 forcibly displaced
57,000 increase (9 per cent change)
Levels of forced displacement in Mali continue to expand as the security situation deteriorates. Violence linked to militant Islamist groups has grown and these militant actors now control an estimated 50 per cent of the country.
Forced displacement has been exacerbated due to a spike in the number of attacks on civilians by the Malian military and Russian paramilitary forces. The 1,250 fatalities inflicted on civilians at the hands of security forces over the past 12 months is almost 3 times more than the 430 linked to militant Islamist groups over the same period.
The Malian junta has actively suppressed reporting in the country. Independent assessments have been further limited by the junta’s demand that the UN peacekeeping force, MINUSMA, depart. The resulting information vacuum suggests figures on violent events, forced displacement, and food insecurity are all significantly undercounted.
Best estimates indicate that in addition to the 354,000 internally displaced, there are almost 4 million facing acute food insecurity (above ICP Level 3) in Mali.
Niger
447,000 forcibly displaced
65,000 increase (17 per cent change)
Reported forced displacements in Niger have increased by 17 per cent over the past year following the military coup in July 2023.
The number of fatalities linked to the militant Islamist insurgency has spiked by over 200 per cent from 404 to 1,265 in the past year. The militant groups have spilled across both the Burkina Faso and Mali borders, uprooting communities in the north and west of the country.
An escalation in militant Islamist group violence along the border with Mali is expected to provoke further population movements in Niger.
The precipitous decline in security in Niger has been accompanied by a deterioration in a host of economic and other measures of citizen well-being.
Notable Non-Conflict-Related Displacement
Eritrea
665,000 forcibly displaced
36,000 increase (6 per cent change)
The reported 36,000 Eritreans that sought refuge or asylum over the past 12 months represents a 6-per cent increase from an already substantial baseline displacement figure. The 655,000 forcibly displaced Eritreans means that at least 18 per cent of the population has fled from the government’s repression.
Eritrea has experienced a steady rate of forced displacement since its independence in 1993 given the government’s widespread use of indefinite national service, arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearances. The latest increase represents a continuation of that trend as well as instability in Ethiopia and Sudan.
Ethiopia suspended the registration and processing of Eritrean asylum claims in 2021, leaving many Eritreans with no status. Following the conflict in Tigray, Eritrean refugees (registered and unregistered) in Ethiopia experienced roundups, leading to deportations to Eritrea. As a result, many Eritreans have sought refuge in countries further afield, where they likely received official refugee status.
The conflict in Sudan has also displaced many Eritrean refugees. Fear of the violence and abuses committed against Eritreans by the RSF as well as stories of the Eritrean government forcibly repatriating displaced Eritrean refugees have incentivized those who can to seek refuge in other countries.
Notable Declines in Forced Displacement
Mozambique
578,000 forcibly displaced
256,000 decrease (-30 per cent change)
Mozambique saw roughly 256,000 IDPs return to their homes over the last 12 months in large part due to improved security following deployments by Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwandan forces against the militant Islamist insurgency in the northeastern part of the country that has claimed more than 6,500 lives since 2018.
South Sudan, Nigeria, Somalia, and Chad have also recorded declines in levels of forced displacement, though these decreases may be transitory, due to changes in reporting methodology, or attributable to factors other than improved prospects for those who are displaced.
- A Tell report / By the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies and republished with permission