The scramble for the heart and soul of the largest opposition party in Kenya, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, is evolving into an fierce dogfight between the dominant Luo and minority Suba, reigniting tensions that go back to pre-independence era in 1963.

This follows the death of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in October, which has rekindled the ethnic tensions after his elder brother Oburu Odinga hurriedly and gleefully took over party in a power struggle that looks to restrict the Suba to secondary roles as Luo retain primacy with Dr Oburu at the summit and Gladys Wanga as national chairperson.

The fissures widened at the weekend when former ODM Chair John Mbadi launched a scathing attack on top party brass he accuses of plotting to scatter the party following the death of long-serving leader Raila Odinga.

Approximately two months after the burial of Raila, Mbadi says the scramble for reins party leadership is a clear pointer that a clique that claims entitlement to Kenya’s largest political party leadership is determined it to auction it to the highest bidder.

Without being explicit, the minister warned that the tussle by Luo and Suba communities for the right to inherit the political space long occupied by the late former prime minister is being orchestrated by the governing United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Mbadi, who is the National Treasury Cabinet Secretary, has openly signalled his readiness to steer ODM’s future and urged the party to focus on capturing state power from UDA in 2027. His position is at variance with Dr Oburu Odinga’s – who during the party’s 20^th anniversary celebrations in Mombasa last month openly disagreed with Raila’s daughter, Winnie – has enthusiastically embraced the ‘broad-based’ government – a hodgepodge crafted by President William Ruto and Raila Odinga. The hodgepodge allowed Ruto co-opt the opposition into the executive.

Speaking at a fundraiser at Jomo Kenyatta Sportsground in Kisumu for Kibuye Market traders, Mbadi, a long-serving stalwart of ODM delivered one of his clearest indications yet that he intends to play a central role in the party’s post-Raila transition in spite of his cabinet position.

Although he is no longer ODM national chairman, the minister said he remains firmly-rooted in the party and cautioned members against reducing it to a perpetual protest movement.

“There is no political party that is formed to be on the streets. There is no political party formed to demonstrate throughout. Political parties are not NGOs. Political parties are not civil society groups. Political parties are formed to form government,” he said.

Against this backdrop, the minister turned his guns on Homa Bay County Governor Gladys Wanga, who he accuses of dictatorship. The governor has come under increasing scrutiny for embezzlement of public funds and shielding herself from accountability by declaring support for President Ruto re-election in 2027.

To demonstrate her intent, Wanga has been running roughshod over senior officials of the party that are opposed to Ruto, among them party Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Rarieda MP Otiende Amolo and Suba MP Millie Odhiambo, among others.

Ms Odhiambo, surprised by Wanga’s declaration to shelve the party’s push for power in favour of Ruto, describes the governor’s alacrity as a “a baby girl who was used to being overly pampered by Baba (Raila Odinga.” The Suba MP revealed recently that the death of Raila had laid bare Wanga’s vacuity and vulnerabilities, which she is trying to hide by constantly seeking Ruto attention and approval.

In a scathing attack during the Kibuye fundraiser, Mbadi warned Wanga, “Gladys Wanga, on what earth-shaking ground do you want to impeach your deputy governor, Magwanga? Because h exercised his democratic right and supported an independent candidate in Kasipul (by-lection)? Is that really an impeachable offence? Homa Bay County is not your kingdom, and you are not its queen. Power is not inherited. Power is now owned. Power is borrowed from the people. I am coming for you. You are a one term (governor).”

Mbadi, Dr Amolo and Millie Odhiambo are Suba. Pro-Ruto members of the party that include Dr Oburu Odinga, Opiyo Wandayi, Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi, Gem Elisha Odhiambo Ochieng, among others – who have been quite vociferous in their approval of Ruto’s presidency – are Luo from North.

South Nyanza is settled by the Suba – who share ancestry with the Bantu in the lacustrine region like the Luhyia, Kisii, Baganda and Basoga – while North Nyanza is settled by Luo, with Nilotic ancestry.

The assassination of Tom Joseph Mboya – a Suba – in 1969, is blamed on betrayal by the Luo. Often, the historical grudge boils over, with the Suba accusing the Luo of treating them as an ‘appendage’ or tail. So strong is the grudge that when Mbadi was vetted for the ministerial position he holds, he insisted that he is Suba, not Luo.”

In remarks widely interpreted as a call for a strategic recalibration in ODM, he said the party must proactively prepare for power rather than remain in reactionary mode.

“We must strategise; we must learn to be in government, to form government,” he said. “If we cannot produce a president for Kenya in 2027, we must produce a president of Kenya in 2032. That must be the irreducible minimum for the party and for our community,” he emphasised.

He also challenged party factions opposed to cooperation with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration to rethink their positions. Without mentioning names, the minister criticised senior party of officials for advocating alliances that, in his view, do not secure ODM’s political future.

“Those who are still telling us that we should not work with William Ruto; that we should work with Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka, yet in their line-up we are nowhere, are misleading us,” Mbadi pointed out.

“In the broad-based government line-up, we are somewhere. We must work with a party that regards ODM, regards our community and is thinking about the future,” he explained.

His comments are likely to stir further rifts in ODM, which is grappling with leadership realignments following Raila Odinga’s demise.

Mbadi, who was a close ally of Raila Odinga for years, has recently taken a more assertive public posture, positioning himself among the emerging voices seeking to influence ODM’s trajectory. As the fundraiser concluded, his message was unmistakable: ODM must define its next chapter and he intends to be part of shaping it.

• A Tell Media / KNA report / By Chris Mahandara