Understanding why Israel is escalating attacks in Lebanon as opinion polls suggest drop in Netanyahu support

Understanding why Israel is escalating attacks in Lebanon as opinion polls suggest drop in Netanyahu support

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Israel has escalated its military operations in Lebanon in recent days, threatening to expand military control in southern Lebanon and strike Beirut despite a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon that took effect in mid-April.

Tensions appeared to ease late on Monday after US President Donald Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to dial back hostilities following his call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and contacts with Hezbollah through “highly placed representatives.

“The latest escalation underscored the fragility of the ceasefire and the extent to which the Lebanon front has become intertwined with wider US-Iran diplomacy.

What happened

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz on Monday vowed to turn the area of southern Lebanon’s Litani River into a military-controlled zone and continue striking Beirut until Hezbollah stops its attacks.

“If there is no peace in northern Israel, there will be no peace in Beirut,” Katz said in a statement released by his office.

Also on Monday, Katz and Netanyahu said in a joint statement that they had ordered the military to strike Beirut’s southern suburbs, citing what they called “repeated Hezbollah violations” of the ceasefire.

On Sunday, Netanyahu said in a videotaped statement that he had instructed the military to deepen and expand its control over Lebanese areas held by Hezbollah. The instruction followed the capture by Israeli forces of the Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon, including the strategic castle at its summit, an area beyond the “security zone” Israel has maintained since the ceasefire took effect. Media reports described the move as Israel’s “deepest advance into Lebanon” in more than 20 years. It drew immediate condemnation from Arab countries, as well as France, Germany and Britain.

Why tensions escalate

Lebanese broadcaster Al Mayadeen reported on Saturday that Lebanon-US-Israel military talks in Washington ended without a deal, as Israel rejected Lebanon’s demand for an immediate ceasefire, refused to withdraw from occupied Lebanese territories and continued to call for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Beyond the failed talks, analysts say Israel is using military pressure to weaken Hezbollah and influence Lebanon’s internal political balance.

Ding Long, a Chinese expert on Middle East affairs at Shanghai International Studies University, said Israel’s recent escalation is aimed at further driving a wedge between Lebanese political forces, pressuring the Lebanese government to act on disarming Hezbollah, and shifting the blame for the failure of the talks onto Beirut.

Israeli officials and military commanders want to inflict as much damage as possible on Hezbollah before a potential deal between Tehran and Washington imposes new limits or halts on the current offensive, observers were quoted by The Guardian as saying.

Domestic politics may also be a factor. Israeli lawmakers have lately given preliminary approval to a bill to dissolve the Knesset, the parliament, potentially triggering early elections, with recent polls suggesting Netanyahu would lose the elections.

Al Jazeera analysis suggested that by expanding strikes beyond southern Lebanon to Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the ruling coalition appeared to project strength and answer domestic criticism that it had failed to respond forcefully to Hezbollah.

  • A Tell Media / Xinhua report

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