Members of Manchester United’s hierarchy doubtless got a sense of deja vu during the executive committee meeting held at INEOS’ London headquarters on October 8. Because it was there, once again, that serious thought was given to sacking Erik ten Hag.

It had been a near-identical situation in May, during a similar summit in Monaco, when, as The Athletic revealed, INEOS figurehead and United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe was first advised to change manager. On that occasion, United’s search for alternative candidates overshadowed their looming FA Cup final appearance but ultimately ended in Ten Hag staying in place and getting an extra year on his contract.

This time, although it took 20 days to come to pass, Ten Hag was relieved of his duties.

At the INEOS offices, over the road from Harrods department store, chief executive Omar Berrada, sporting director Dan Ashworth and technical director Jason Wilcox presented the football reasons for why a new manager might be required in a meeting attended by Ratcliffe, co-chairman Joel Glazer, club board member Sir Dave Brailsford, INEOS representatives Jean-Claude Blanc, Rob Nevin and Roger Bell, as well as United’s chief operating officer Collette Roche.

The executive committee (ExCo) meetings are monthly get-togethers to discuss the entire club, from commercial to stadium, hence the spectrum of people involved but, as The Athletic reported, this one carried extra significance given the talk around the manager’s future. Roche was among those on the business side who left the meeting before that major agenda item, which came amid a conversation about the wider picture at United and a full interrogation of club finances, as has become customary since INEOS took charge of United’s football and business operations this year.

Indeed, the state of United’s balance sheet has been a factor throughout the debate on Ten Hag. The cost of replacing him and hiring a replacement was a consideration at the end of last season, but the irony in United opting to trigger the 12-month extension in his contract is that his compensation now will be higher.

A figure of about £15 million ($19.5 million) has been confirmed as accurate by people briefed on the matter, who, like others in this article, will remain anonymous to protect relationships. That sum, while giving pause for thought due to United’s recent record of making losses, combined with financial regulations imposed by UEFA (European football’s governing body) and the Premier League, was not considered prohibitive to a change. The cost could be swallowed if those in charge judged the sporting case compelling. And United’s positions of 14th in the 20-club Premier League and 21st in the 36-team Europa League forced the issue. The drop in performance can be seen from their rolling expected goals (xG) chart below.

No immediate action was taken on Ten Hag’s position at the ExCo despite the negative assessment of his reign, but a contingency plan was formulated for if performances and results did not improve.

United executives began assessing candidates afresh, with Ruben Amorim high in their thoughts. They had already looked at the Sporting Lisbon head coach in the summer but after conversations both parties decided the time wasn’t right then. His release clause was higher and United directors wanted to see how Ten Hag fared in a new structure.

United staff made further background checks on Amorim more recently, were informed he would be willing to leave Sporting despite their Champions League campaign  and came to an understanding of the fee to prise him away from the Portuguese club. A release clause of around €10 million (£8.3 million or $10.8 million) was not seen as an obstacle. Berrada is a huge admirer of Amorim and has been a key driver behind the push to appoint him at United, although it is a collective call.

The combined cost of Ten Hag’s departure and Amorim’s potential arrival does push United close to the line on financial regulations, according to those with knowledge of the situation, but Ratcliffe has privately indicated a desire to test the limits and figure out a solution later.

Ratcliffe’s role in these developments should not be underestimated. He went on record as saying the decision rests with Berrada and Ashworth, but nothing of this magnitude would happen without his say-so. Ten Hag would have gone in the summer had Ratcliffe insisted, but he was persuaded to maintain the status quo after talks with Thomas Tuchel, the No 1 choice, and then Roberto De Zerbi broke down.

Amorim, touted as a possible successor to Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, represents the kind of bullish appointment that appeals to the petrochemicals billionaire.

Those in charge at United regard the 39-year-old, who has two titles and three cups in four years of first-team management in Portugal, albeit a mixed record in the European competitions, as a strong personality capable of bringing glamour and attractive football to the club. His preference for playing with a back three is not seen as an issue, given the make-up of United’s squad.

United also looked at Massimiliano Allegri, but the 57-year-old former Juventus manager was viewed as someone far less likely to build for the long term in the way Amorim could. Edin Terzic, 41, out of work having stepped down after leading Borussia Dortmund to last season’s Champions League final, came up in discussions too. Tuchel was not considered on this occasion, prompting him to accept the England job this month.

There were also talks about Xavi, the 44-year-old who left Barcelona in the summer after three seasons in charge, but not to a serious degree, and United’s executives kept coming back to Amorim. They wanted to have matters lined up before making a change so there was no prospect of another unseemly tour of candidates emerging in public.

Berrada and Ashworth flew to Lisbon to progress negotiations on Amorim once Ten Hag was told of his fate at Carrington on Monday morning.

It was only September 1, less than two months ago, that Berrada and Ashworth told journalists during a briefing at Old Trafford that Ten Hag had their “full backing”, and that is perhaps an awkward look in hindsight.

Some at the club feel the two executives erred in speaking at that moment, with the quotes coming out, as agreed with reporters, after that day’s game against arch-rivals Liverpool, which United lost 3-0 at home. But from their perspective, communication is important for fans, whatever the prospects of becoming a hostage to fortune, and United wanted Ten Hag to be a success.

Results changed matters.

One high-ranking person at United described the loss to his Dutch countryman Arne Slot’s team as “grim with a capital G” and although Ten Hag’s side won the next two games, against Premier League strugglers Southampton and Barnsley of third-tier League One in the Carabao Cup, scoring 10 goals without reply in the process, they would celebrate victory in one of the next eight before Ten Hag was fired. Since March 1, United have 27 points from 21 league games, the same as Crystal Palace, Brentford and Fulham, one more than Everton, and five fewer than Bournemouth.

The 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday in what proved Ten Hag’s final match may have been unfortunate, decided by a hugely controversial late VAR intervention, and the fact that a change of manager has come after a largely good display in that game surprised some at United. But those in power saw familiar failings, with players only able to perform as a collective for 45 minutes before reverting to operating more as individuals.

Players must take some blame for that, people in the hierarchy acknowledged, but they reasoned there comes a point when the manager is responsible through a deficiency of motivation or communication. Ten Hag shook everyone’s hand in the dressing room after the final whistle on Sunday, which some perceived as him sensing he may be in jeopardy.

In Ten Hag’s final fortnight at United, those around the club noticed the football leadership team being less visible with him, both at the Carrington training ground and at games. Although, on Sunday evening, he still started preparation for the Carabao Cup last-16 tie on Wednesday at home against Leicester City.

When Berrada and Ashworth delivered the news the next day, Ten Hag responded in a dignified manner.

That afternoon, he took a private jet home to the Netherlands, hugging a ground-control staffer on the tarmac on his way up the steps. It was in his country, at a military event involving his daughter, that he spent the weekend of October 12-13. There was feverish speculation over his future then, and now there again he is expected to take some time out to reflect.

His assistant and compatriot Ruud van Nistelrooy will take interim charge of the team. Van Nistelrooy’s elevation, however temporary, was expected by several people at the club before Ten Hag’s departure. Some around United believed Van Nistelrooy would be given a real run at managing the team, allowing executives to conduct a thorough process on a permanent replacement, with Ratcliffe said to admire the former United striker highly. Van Nistelrooy’s aura and charisma have been commented on at Carrington since his appointment to the staff in the summer.

But that outcome, now not expected, would have presented a point of intrigue given Ten Hag had brought Van Nistelrooy in.

Van Nistelrooy was not, contrary to certain public opinion, an INEOS hire, but a proposal by Ten Hag’s agent Kees Vos when discussions took place over refreshing the coaching setup. The 48-year-old, who scored 150 goals for the club from 2001-06, has caught attention in recent weeks, soaking up the fan chants alone after away matches against Porto, Aston Villa and Fenerbahce, and being the first to take issue with officials in the Brentford and West Ham games, as well as revving up players from the technical area.

United are working to complete Amorim’s appointment, but the terms of his release clause mean negotiations are required for a swift exit. Depending on how talks go, Van Nistelrooy may get a few games more than this tie against Leicester, with Chelsea visiting Old Trafford for a Premier League fixture on Sunday and a Europa League meeting with PAOK Salonika of Greece there four days later.

In Lisbon last on Wednesday, Amorim headed straight down the tunnel after Sporting’s 3-1 quarter-final win over Nacional in the Portuguese League Cup, telling reporters in his press conference that after a “strange day” he would wait for matters to be decided before explaining his thoughts. “I’ll do what I want, what I want to do, as I’ve always done throughout my time as a player and coach,” he said. Asked about the awkward atmosphere in the stadium and the anger among supporters over his prospective move to United, he added: “They really believe in my work and love is very close to hate.”

United’s goalscoring record has proved terminal for Ten Hag. They have only eight in the 2024-25 Premier League after nine games. The last time they had managed fewer than nine at this stage of a top-flight campaign was in 1973-74, the last time they were relegated.

But chance creation has generally been decent. United have had 27 Opta-defined ‘big chances’ this season (created and rebounds) and missed 22. No team in the division has more (Tottenham Hotspur are on 22 too). The difference between United’s expected goals figure (14.78, the sixth-best total) and their actual number of goals scored is the widest in the Premier League at -6.78 (Newcastle are next on -5.29).

• A Tell report / Republished from The Athletic