The 2025/2026 coffee auction season is in mid-year recess until July 2026 with the Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) reporting one of the strongest performances in recent years.

According to the NCE report, the exchange completed 29 auction sales since the season opened on October 1, 2025, trading a total of 36.93 million kilogrammes of clean coffee valued at about Sh32.25 billion ($249 million).

The report indicates that although the current season did not surpass the 38 million kilogrammes traded during the 2022/2023 season, it delivered far better earnings due to improved global coffee prices and stronger market demand.

The NCE figures show that the average auction price for the season stood at Ksh43,780 per 50-kilogramme bag, making it the best-performing season in terms of prices over the last five years.

The report paints a picture of a coffee sector that has gradually recovered after years of fluctuating global prices and inconsistent farmer returns.

During the 2021/2022 season, the exchange traded 33.76 million kilogrammes worth Ksh23.3 billion ($180 million), with farmers earning an estimated equivalent of about Ksh85 per kilogramme of cherry after deductions.

(Current exchange rate $1 = Ksh129.35)

The following 2022/2023 season recorded the highest traded volume at 38 million kilogrammes, but lower international coffee prices pushed total earnings down to Ksh19.7 billion. Farmer returns also dropped sharply to an estimated Ksh64 per kilogramme of cherry.

According to the report, signs of recovery began emerging in the 2023/2024 season when average auction prices improved to Ksh29,187 per bag, raising farmer earnings to around Ksh72 per kilogramme.

However, the real turnaround was witnessed in the last two seasons as global coffee prices strengthened significantly.

In the 2024/2025 season, average auction prices rose to about Ksh43,000 per bag, generating nearly Ksh28 billion in total earnings and translating to an estimated Ksh106 per kilogramme for farmers after deductions.

The report points out that the current 2025/2026 season has continued with the upward momentum. Based on prevailing conversion ratios, the report estimates that the current auction prices translate to a gross cherry equivalent of about Ksh134 per kilogramme or approximately Ksh107 after the standard 20 per cent deductions for cooperative and marketing expenses.

The report further notes that some cooperatives in coffee-growing counties have already announced cherry payments of up to Ksh150 per kilogramme, surpassing the national average estimates.

According to the NCE, these higher pay-outs have largely been driven by improved coffee grades, better management at factory level, lower operational deductions, certification premiums and favourable market timing.

The exchange also recorded continued dominance of premium coffee grades; AA and AB, which accounted for 24 per cent and 38 per cent of the total coffee traded respectively.

International buyers remained active throughout the season, with firms such as Ibero Kenya, C. Dormans, Sasini, Louis Dreyfus and Taylor Winch among the major buyers at the auction.

With the NCE now on recess until July, focus is expected to shift to cooperative annual general meetings and payment announcements, where farmers will closely monitor how the strong auction performance translates into final pay-outs at the factory level.

• A Tell Media / KNA report / By Bernard Munyao