Memories of how Adrian Muteshi, a Luhyia, who was forcibly ejected from his 100 acre farm in Eldoret during the 2007 post-election in Kenya are still fresh. Some 10 years on, former Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago rubbed pepper in the wounds of the community in western Kenya by forcing Prof Laban Ayiro from the position of vice chancellor of Moi University to install a Kalenjin – President William Ruto’s tribe.

Prior to Prof Ayiro’s forced exit by the Kalenjin, Prof Teresa Akenga – another Luhyia – was forced to prematurely terminate her tenure as vice chancellor of University of Eldoret to give way to a Kalenjin.

The many incidents in which Luhyia property owners have seen their wealth – sometimes violently – grabbed with Ruto patronage is dominating political discourse in Malava by-election, which has inadvertently acquired the status of bellwether for the 2027 General Election.

Memories of primitive force President Ruto’s Kalenjin tribe – at his behest – use to acquire property legally owned by neighbouring communities has come into play and it is expected to deliver the verdict in Malava and Kabuchai (in Bungoma) by-elections.

Further pain was inflicted when, as deputy president of Jubilee government, Ruto in 2017 forced Kevin Okwaro, Luhyia, who had won the party’s nomination for Turbo parliamentary seat to pave way for Janet Sitienei, a Kalenjin. Ruto’s who hails from Turbo constituency, swore that he cannot not be represented in parliament by a Luhyia.

Against the backdrop of the bitter memories, there are justifiable fears that the state is planning and is determined to get the seat at whatever cost. Deadly violence, therefore, is anticipated if the state, which has deployed its machinery in the constituency interferes with the expected outcome.

Voters says they are braced for the imminent violence.

The condescension of the Luhyia by Kalenjin does not end there. President Ruto’s personal assistant Farouk Kibet is accused of forcibly acquiring land owned by the Luhyia in Turbo, Kipkaren and Soy, which are not very from the president’s rural home.

Luhyia make about 40 per cent of Uasin County population, with the Kalenjin at 45 per cent while the rest of the communities (Kikuyu, Kisii and Luo) making the remaining five per cent, according to the 2019 census.

The Kalenjin bellicosity is shaping the political contest in the Malava parliamentary by-election, where Farouk has pitched tent for the past three months in push to hand the seat to the largely unpopular governing United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Citing National Intelligence Service (NIS), Major (retired) Chekai Musa warns that election in western will be fraught with violence if Ruto imposes himself or unpopular candidates on the electorate.

In social a media post that has since gone viral, Chekai notes, “The NIS, which reports directly to President William Ruto, never lies. They always report facts. My friend, William Ruto will force his re-elections in 2027 but you will be left ukijilamba meno na midomo yako (licking your wounds). Retreat or perish. Don’t end up like Mithika Linturi and company who trusted William Ruto with all their muscles! They are currently in opposition.”

The former Kenya Defence Force man, citing NIS reports, says the ground in western is hostile to Ruto and UDA and only rebellious candidates stand a chance of making it to parliament. Ruto will have to unleash violence to have his way in Malava, he says.

“If you are a Member of Parliament and wish to be re-elected or aspiring to be an elected leader in 2027 and you are not ‘relative’ of William Ruto just stop shouting the choruses of ‘Two Terms’. Retreat to the people before it is too late. If you say that you trust President William Ruto then continue shouting and perish!,” he warns.

In addition, h writes, “The NIS has grouped Bungoma County among the battlefield counties (the other being Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga) as we move towards 2027. It is no longer a ‘base’ of Kenya Kwanza or William Ruto. If you come from Bungoma or Trans Nzoia and you are not a ‘relative’ of William Ruto just stop shouting the choruses of ‘Two Terms’.”

With just over a week to the D-day – viewed as a test run for the 2027 General Election– the by-election slated for November 27 is proving to be nightmare for Ruto’s UDA party, which has deployed a disproportionate number of state functionaries to the constituency ranked as the biggest in western Kenya. This is in contrast to the other 24 by-elections set for the same day – seven parliamentary seats and 17 ward seats.

Fears of UDA losing the seat to DAP-K is a waking nightmare for Ruto given the hostility Farouk has encountered. It is in public domain that the president’s personal assistant has been forcing men in Malava to perform sexual gyrations as he ogles at their bottoms. This has incensed locals.

The unpopular gyrations are feeding the narrative that the president’s man is in Malava to promot homosexuality. The reference to homosexuality is often made at Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya rallies. Trans-Nzoia Governor Gorge Natembeya, former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, DCP Deputy Leader Cleophas Malala and Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale have been very critical of the obscenity Farouk forces men to perform in public.

Against this backdrop, the UDA stalwarts are tightening their grip of the by-election. It is alleged that the government has deployed Ksh400 million – reportedly diverted from school capitation, Social Health Authority and universities funding – to wrest the sat from the opposition.

On Monday, a 2022 senatorial aspirant Brian Lishenga warned the electorate against kowtowing to Farouk and ilk’s “development promises.”

Without providing details to back up allegations of voter bribery, Dr Lishenga said, seven Member of Parliament from the county are secretly bribing voters to “suppress” opposition votes or influence them to vote for UDA candidate David Ndakwa.

DAP-K flagbearer is Seth Panyako, who analysts say is poised to carry the day in a free and fair exercise.

Says, Lishenga, “The state has mobilised seven Members of Parliament from Kakamega to be in charge of each ward in Malava. The MPs have been assigned one ward each in an exercise that is being funded with Ksh1 million per day for the next 10 days to bribe voters, hire goons and suppress votes in Seth Panyako’s strongholds. This is Ksh70 million of taxpayer’s money looted from SHA (Social Health Authority) and monies diverted from school capitation. However, the people are so strongly in favour of Seth Kuka Panyako.”

Dr Lishenga is the Founding Chair of Rural and Urban Private Hospitals Association (RUPHA), which is made up of over 380 private hospitals and medical centres in Kenya

Speaking at the weekend at Matete Primary in Manda-Shivanga Ward during a widows’ empowerment event, Kibet waxed lyrical, saying the odds are stacked against the opposition considering. Farouk replayed Ruto’s pet subject that profiles opposition as no-gooders, without clear agenda for the country. Ironically, when Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya stomped for Panyako at the same venue, he drew in a crowd double the one Farouk addressed.

Kibet has expressed surprise, though, that the opposition was fixated on the 2027 presidential election instead campaigning in Malava.

“The government has stood with Malava people and the best reward we can give it is to vote for UDA candidate David Ndakwa as the next Malava MP,” he told the rally at Matete.

Kibet said that if Ndakwa is elected to National Assembly Malava would get “more goodies in terms of developments to open more opportunities for the young people to earn their living.” 

Principal Secretary in the Department Higher Education Beatrice Inyangala lauded projects the government had initiated in Malava, saying many women groups had benefitted via economic empowerment programmes.

The guest of honour, Senate Speaker Amason Kefa Kingi, cautioned voters in Malava against supporting the opposition. He warned that if they do so they would be out of the government’s development agenda.

• A Tell Media report / By Isaiah Wakhungu Andanje