Over a month since the Middle East conflict erupted, its grip on Japan’s auto industry has only tightened: disruptions to imports of key raw materials such as naphtha are pushing up costs and squeezing parts production, while shipping blockages have forced carmakers to idle production lines serving the region.

According to Japan Today, carmakers reported mixed first-quarter US sales on Wednesday (today) pointing to a hit from winter storms, as the Middle East war clouds the industry’s outlook compared with unusually favourable dynamics a year ago.

“The US-Israeli offensive against Iran, launched on February 28, has boosted oil costs by more than 50 per cent, sending gasoline prices to more than $4 per gallon in the United States. While that adds to the affordability challenges facing the industry, experts and automakers say it is too soon to determine the war’s overall impact on sales,” the newspaper reported.

General Motors said on Wednesday it sold 626,429 vehicles between January and March, and that the early part of the quarter was marred by “severe winter weather,” while March emerged as a “much stronger month.”

It also cited the “exceptionally high” level of sales in March 2025, when worries about expected tariffs from President Donald Trump prompted shoppers to rush car purchases.

Meanwhile, Toyota Motor North America reported 569,420 first-quarter vehicle sales, down 0.1 percent from a year ago.

Data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed Japan’s imports of petroleum products, including naphtha, fell around 30 per cent in March from the previous month.

As a critical feedstock for the chemical industry, the tightening naphtha supplies have led to shortages of raw materials for producing plastic components such as ethylene, while prices of butadiene and synthetic rubber, essential building blocks for tyre manufacturing, have surged.

Tang Jin, a senior researcher at Japan’s Mizuho Bank and an expert in the automotive sector, said prolonged tensions in the Middle East are having a direct and profound impact on Japan’s car industry.

Tighter naphtha supplies are driving up prices for a wide range of auto parts and tires, he said, raising production costs, squeezing automakers’ margins and eroding the global competitiveness of Japanese cars. The Middle East is a key market for Japanese automakers.

However, shipment disruptions, delivery delays and order cancellations have thrown their production plans off track, forcing several manufacturers to reduce or suspend output of models earmarked for Middle Eastern customers.

Japanese media reported that Toyota Motor Corp plans to cut production of vehicles bound for the Middle East by 24,000 units in April.

Nissan Motor Co said it would extend into April the output reductions it implemented in March. Mazda Motor Corp confirmed it would halt production of vehicles for Middle East export through the end of May, while Subaru Corp said exports to the region had already ceased due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

With Iran and the United States reaching a two-week ceasefire and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz expected to be restored, industry insiders say it is still too early to tell how the situation will unfold and are taking a wait-and-see approach to its impact on the industry.

Meanwhile, FCA US, the US affiliate of Stellantis, reported a four percent increase to 305,902 from its line-up, which includes Jeep, Dodge and Alfa Romeo, according Japan Today article.

And Hyundai reported a one percent increase to 205,388 units. Other leading automakers, including Ford and Tesla, have yet to release first-quarter figures.

“Cox Automotive projected a US sales decline of 6.5 per cent, with the boost from expected lofty tax refunds offset by affordability difficulties and anxiety about the war. Exactly how the Iran conflict impacts auto sales will depend on its duration, especially if higher inflation prompts central banks to keep interest rates high, or raise them higher,” the story says.

The war “adds tremendous amount of uncertainty to the vehicle market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, an economist at Cox Automotive.

A note from Oxford Economics pointed to improving dynamics in March after winter storms abated.

“However, sales will face major headwinds as higher gas prices due to the U.S.-Iran war take a bite out of consumers’ real disposable income growth,” Oxford said.

Auto information website Edmunds projected US car sales of 3.7 million in the first quarter, down 6.5 percent from the year-ago period.

“Between severe weather, geopolitical uncertainty, rising gas prices and ongoing affordability challenges, it’s no surprise sales are down year over year,” Edmunds said.

Deutsche Bank said it did not anticipate an “immediate near-term impact” from the war on volumes, confirming an outlook of 15.8 million sales for this year, down 2.5 percent from 2025.

• A Tell Media / Xinhua report