World oil markets react to ramped up hostilities in Middle East as Israel pounds Iran’s nuclear sites

World oil markets react to ramped up hostilities in Middle East as Israel pounds Iran’s nuclear sites

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Oil prices fell off multi-month highs hit earlier on Friday as Israeli airstrikes avoided Iranian oil sites but prices still up about 6 per cent as investors worried that the tensions could disrupt Middle East oil supplies.

Brent crude futures were up $4.11 or 5.9 per cent, to $73.47 a barrel by 11:12 a.m. EDT (1712 GMT), after earlier soaring over 13 per cent to an intraday high of $78.50, the strongest level since January 27.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $4.38, or 6.4 per cent, at $72.42, after earlier jumping over 14 per cent to its highest since January 21 at $77.62.

Friday’s gains were the largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices.

Israel said it had targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon. Iran has promised a harsh response.

US President Donald Trump urged Iran to make a deal over its nuclear programme, to put an end to the “next already planned attacks.” The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company said oil refining and storage facilities had not been damaged and continued to operate.

“Almost every time you get that big fear response, but then it’s almost always not as bad as first thought,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. “The Israelis haven’t targeted oil refineries and oil pipelines. They haven’t targeted oil ships.”

One primary concern, according to analysts, was whether the latest developments would affect the Strait of Hormuz, said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com.

“Sustained upside would require actual disruptions to physical flows – such as damage to Iran’s oil infrastructure or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint,” Tzabouras said in a note on Friday morning.

Investors shifted towards safe havens today as the escalation in hostilities in the Middle East ramped up.

About a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.

“Israeli action has so far avoided Iranian energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, the terminal responsible for an estimated 90 per cent of Iran’s crude oil exports,” said Bem Hoff, head of commodity research at Societe Generale.

“This raises the possibility that any further escalation could follow an ‘energy-for-energy’ logic where an attack on one side’s oil infrastructure might invite a retaliatory strike on the others,” Hoff said.

Iran could pay a heavy price for blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which it and its neighbours rely on to ship oil to Asian markets, analysts said on Friday.

“Iran’s economy heavily relies on the free passage of goods and vessels through the seaway, as its oil exports are entirely sea-based. Finally, cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran’s relationship with its sole oil customer, China, said Natasha Kaneva, Prateek Kedia, Lyuba Savinova, analysts with JP Morgan.

In other markets, stocks dived and there was a rush to safe havens such as gold and the US dollar and Swiss franc.

  • A Reuters report
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